Closed factories and shops, cancelled events, travel bans, wide-ranging curfews – the Corona crisis turns out to have alarming and sudden effects on the global economy. The dramatic meltdown of the leading stock markets in recent weeks seems to reflect the fears of a long-lasting recession. For some experts, this brings back memories of the financial crisis back in 2008. Although “this time is different” [credits to Reinhart/Rogoff], the financial sector is facing severe second-round effects, among other things:
- A massive wave of distressed and defaulted clients leading to a sharp increase in loan loss provisions and serious P&L hits
- Deterioration and high volatility of prices for bonds and equities that serve, e.g. as liquid assets or collateral
In addition, banks themselves need to cope with multiple operational challenges resulting from the extensive shutdown, e.g. working from home as a trader within a highly regulated environment or managing ongoing on-site inspections “remotely”.
Therefore, besides several short-term measures to support companies, employees and self-employed people, the governments and respective competent authorities also agreed on various temporary reliefs for banks to ensure that they “can continue to fulfil their role to fund households and corporations amid the coronavirus-related economic shock to the global economy” [ECB].
We want to accompany our clients in these difficult times and believe that it is crucial these days to stay informed and analyse the potential impact. That is why we decided to use our Regulatory Blog to provide you with an updated overview of supervisory measures continuously and to discuss the multiple ways banks can be affected (this time only in English since we have a steadily growing number of international readers – thank you for your understanding!).
Please don’t wait to contact us whenever you need our support – be it in understanding and analyzing the impact of the crisis and the potential measures or in coping with the operational challenges in these extraordinary times. And most important: Please stay healthy and take good care of you and your loved ones!
The following sections of this post serve as a general overview that will be updated continuously. For more details, we will refer to separate posts, slides, etc. that will be published regularly.
Overview of supervisory reactions (as of March 22, 2020)
Reaction of the ECB supervision
On March 12, 2020, following intensive bilateral communication with the significant institutions, the ECB publicly announced several actions to be taken in reaction to the Corona crisis (see also our separate blog post in German). These measures were activated, refined and extended by ECB’s latest press release from March 20, 2020, which comes with a detailed and continuously updated FAQ section on the specific measures.
Reaction of National Supervisors
In Germany, BaFin also set up a particular website with the most recent updates on the Corona crisis from a supervisory perspective, including the measures introduced by the ECB supervision that need to be formally implemented on the national level for the less significant institutions.
[Updates on further NCA reactions in other countries soon to follow]
Reactions from the Basel Committee on Banking Supervision
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (BCBS) supports the objectives of the measures taken by member jurisdictions and highlights in its latest press release from March 20, 2020, that members have the flexibility to undertake further steps if needed under the current Basel III framework. The BCBS also acknowledges the extraordinary circumstances and announced that, in the immediate term, the consultation on all policy initiatives would be suspended and all outstanding jurisdictional assessments planned in 2020 under its Regulatory Consistency Assessment Programme will be postponed. The BCBS is considering additional measures aimed at supporting the financial resilience of banks and the operational resilience of both the banking and supervisory community.
Overview of topic-related measures (as of March 22, 2020)
The following sections serve as an overview of specific measures and the respective discussions or challenges. To provide greater clarity we structured this overview topic-related (not chronologically). As soon as there are updates, we will add these accordingly and highlight the amendments.
Minimum capital ratios
According to the ad hoc measures taken by the ECB, banks can fully use their capital buffers during this time of financial distress, including the Capital Conservation Buffer (CCB) and the Pillar 2 Guidance (P2G). This means that banks are allowed to operate temporarily – until further notice – below the level of capital defined by the P2G and the CCB.
Besides, banks can partially use capital instruments that do not qualify as CET1 capital, e.g. Additional Tier 1 or Tier 2 instruments, to meet their Pillar 2 Requirement (P2R). This measure is effectively an early implementation of the standards laid down in CRD V that originally should entry into force in January 2021). Thereby, banks benefit from relief in the composition of capital for the P2R.
Furthermore, the country-specific countercyclical buffer (CCyB) can be reduced individually by the competent national authorities. In Germany for example, the competent authority for setting the CCyB (Ausschuss für Finanzstabilität, ASF) already announced on March 18, 2020, that the CCyB rate for exposures in Germany would be set to 0% from April 2020 (instead of 0,25% which would have been effective from July 2020 onwards according to BaFin’s Allgemeinverfügung). This reduction will expire in December 2020 or maybe prolonged. Other national competent authorities likely will follow or followed already. We will inform you about future developments.
The ECB highlights that the absorption of the P2G and the amended capital composition needed for the P2R will lead to a CET1 relief for the significant banks of € 120 bn that can be used to absorb losses or to cover new lending business.
Defaults, Non-Performing Loans (NPL) and provisioning
Since banks fear a massive wave of counterparty defaults in the course of the Corona crisis, the ECB refers to the flexibility of the current NPL framework. In particular, the ECB allows banks to benefit from guarantees and moratoriums put in place by public authorities to tackle the upcoming distress in the following manner:
- Supervisors will grant flexibility regarding the classification of debtors as defaulted due to “unlikeliness to pay” when banks call on public guarantees issued in the context of the Corona crisis. Further flexibilities will be exercised regarding loans under Covid-19 related public moratoriums.
- Loans which become non-performing and are under public guarantees will benefit from preferential prudential treatment in terms of supervisory expectations about loss provisioning (i.e. 0% coverage rate for the first seven years of the vintage count when determining the NPL backstop).
- Supervisors will deploy full flexibility when discussing with banks the implementation of NPL reduction strategies, taking into account the extraordinary nature of current market conditions.
Definition of default
Regarding the definition of default, no concrete reliefs are discussed yet. But the German NCA (BaFin) used the possibility to clarify that a deferral is in general not to be deemed as a default according to Art. 178 CRR as long as there is no “distressed restructuring” which leads to a diminished financial obligation that exceeds the 1% threshold (see paragraph 51 of EBA Guidelines 2016/07 on the definition of default).
Loan loss provisions under IFRS 9
Applying the accounting standards for provisioning according to IFRS 9 based on an Expected Credit Loss (ECL) model is expected to lead to a significant and sudden increase in loan loss provisions and adverse P&L effects respectively. To alleviate the corresponding impact on the banks’ CET1 and to avoid pro-cyclical effect on the lending behaviour of the banks applying IFRS 9, the ECB recommends making use of the transitional provisions according to Art. 473 (a) CRR for taking into account the IFRS 9 implementation effects. Besides, the ECB recommends IFRS 9 banks to account for the new relief measures granted by public authorities in their ECL model forecasts and announced to support banks with their macroeconomic scenarios to reduce procyclicality and high volatility in provisioning.
Minimum liquidity requirements
Beyond the additional capital needs, banks might face significant liquidity constraints. This might be due to higher outflows, e.g. stemming from retail and operational accounts or additional collateral calls in times of stress, and lower inflows, e.g. as a result of counterparty defaults or deferred payments. Further, the deterioration of the credit quality of bond or equity issuers might lead to decreasing volume of eligible liquid assets.
Therefore, the ECB allows banks to make use of their liquidity buffer under stress. This means to operate temporarily below the minimum LCR level of 100% in order to ensure liquidity in the system and avoid contagion effects that might trigger liquidity problems in other institutions. However, the precautions to be taken according to Art. 414 CRR when there is an (expected) LCR shortfall will be still applicable, i.e. immediate notification to the competent authorities, preparation of a liquidity restoration plan and daily LCR reporting.
Operational reliefs
One of the first measures taken by EBA to reduce the operational burden of banks in the light of the Corona crisis was to postpone the EU-wide stress test from 2020 to 2021.
Furthermore, the ECB considers operational flexibility in the implementation of bank-specific supervisory measures, e.g. adjusting timetables for on-site inspections (OSI) and internal model investigations (TRIM) and extending deadlines for the implementation of remediation actions stemming from recent OSIs. In particular, the ECB clarifies that all decisions and measures taken remain valid while the ECB decides to:
- postpone, by six months, the existing deadline for remedial actions imposed in the context of OSIs, TRIM investigations and internal model investigations,
- postpone, by six months, the verification of compliance with qualitative SREP measures,
- postpone, by six months, the issuance of TRIM decisions, OSI follow up letters and internal model decisions not yet communicated to institutions unless the bank explicitly asks for a decision because it is seen as beneficial to the bank.
The respective JSTs will be in contact with the banks to provide clarity on the revised implementation timeline of those requirements and their specific application.
The ECB already announced that this six-month delay may be extended based on the its assessment of economic and financial developments. However, whether or not this postponement will be sufficient is also significantly related to the question to what extent each individual bank is able to adapt at short notice to this new working environment. When looking e.g. at the current TRIM remediation projects (“IRB repair”), we see especially the following operational challenges:
- Model redevelopments in particular require extensive new data collection. Such actions take significant time and require several internal sources in the bank work closely in coordination. As many resources will now be working remotely from home and will not have the chance to meet frequently with their team members, it might be difficult for the bank to achieve a certain level of efficiency to be prepared to fulfill the tasks for the committed deadlines along the remediation plans.
- When it comes to working from home, bank internal resources might not have extensive experience and probably no access to efficient remote working conditions (e.g. laptops, mobile devices). Especially for model developers that need to handle with massive data sets sufficient server and network capacities are crucial as many banks imposed restrictions to load data to local hard-drives due to data security concerns.
- In most cases, banks need to meet higher capital requirements for their IRB portfolios under the remediation programme as their IRB risk parameters were not fully in compliance due to the TRIM findings, i.e. there might be a need to clarify if or to what extent this capital add-ons are applicable in case the delay will be extended.
You will find further discussions on the operational burden and our view on potential solutions shortly in a separate blog post.